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	<title>Clear Climate Code &#187; trends</title>
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	<link>http://clearclimatecode.org</link>
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		<title>Trendy!</title>
		<link>http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/</link>
		<comments>http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Mar 2010 08:44:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>drj</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[status]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ccc-gistemp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trends]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[tool/vischeck.py has been recently updated so that it computes and draws trends (the work was done by me and Nick Barnes).  Here&#8217;s some recent comparisons redrawn with trends:
The &#8220;before 1992 / after 1992 stations&#8221; from &#8220;The 1990s station dropout does not have a warming effect&#8221;:

The short trends are done with the last 30 years [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://code.google.com/p/ccc-gistemp/source/browse/trunk/tool/vischeck.py"><tt>tool/vischeck.py</tt></a> has been recently updated so that it computes and draws trends (the work was done by me and Nick Barnes).  Here&#8217;s some recent comparisons redrawn with trends:</p>
<p>The &#8220;before 1992 / after 1992 stations&#8221; from <a href="http://clearclimatecode.org/the-1990s-station-dropout-does-not-have-a-warming-effect/">&#8220;The 1990s station dropout does not have a warming effect&#8221;</a>:</p>
<p><img src="http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&#038;chtt=Global+Land+Index&#038;chdl=pre-cutoff|post-cutoff&#038;chdlp=t&#038;chds=-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100&#038;chd=t:-999%7C-25,-9,-14,-17,-55,-26,-37,-64,-41,-6,-41,-72,-55,-60,-65,-54,-53,-22,-14,-32,-9,-9,-33,-42,-48,-35,-21,-49,-43,-41,-28,-35,-28,-28,0,11,-27,-65,-36,-9,-19,-12,-13,-16,-16,-19,3,-6,2,-23,-3,2,5,-14,5,-10,0,9,12,2,20,16,14,2,11,2,2,12,-4,-5,-9,-2,6,13,-7,-8,-27,4,13,6,1,8,5,6,-28,-12,-4,-3,-5,10,9,-21,-12,16,-14,0,-19,19,6,13,25,35,9,37,3,18,22,48,46,28,54,46,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999,-999%7C-999%7C9,-7,27,9,15,1,5,-32,-13,22,-9,-29,-33,-28,-15,-16,-5,-1,-14,-21,1,1,-21,-29,-36,-25,-5,-32,-25,-26,-14,-19,-29,-23,1,3,-12,-37,-27,-8,-13,6,-10,-13,-11,-14,6,-9,-2,-23,-1,3,1,-11,2,-6,6,16,21,-1,9,7,9,5,12,-1,-2,10,-1,-9,-18,-3,2,11,-8,-8,-17,9,11,7,1,11,5,2,-24,-17,-9,-2,-13,0,4,-9,-4,19,-6,-1,-21,16,6,13,26,38,7,33,13,11,17,32,41,28,48,43,12,18,31,45,37,39,70,45,41,56,68,65,58,77,66,73,55,73,-999%7C-100,100%7C-42,35%7C26,71%7C-16,38%7C-100,100%7C-25,37%7C54,98%7C15,70&#038;chxt=x,y,r&#038;chxl=0:%7C1880%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1890%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1900%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1910%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1920%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1930%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1940%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1950%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1960%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1970%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1980%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1990%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2000%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2010%7C1:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C%7C2:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C&#038;chco=0000ff,ff0000,0000ff,0000ff,ff0000,ff0000&#038;chls=1%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1&#038;chm=%40tTrend+%28°C%2FCentury%29+and+R²%2C000000%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.20%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.59+%280.56%29+%2F+30-year%3A+1.88+%280.58%29%2C0000ff%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.15%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.48+%280.49%29+%2F+30-year%3A+1.90+%280.66%29%2Cff0000%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.10%2C12&#038;chs=440x330" /><br />
The short trends are done with the last 30 years of data for each series (which since one series ends in 1991, is a different period for each).  Notice how similar the recent trends are.</p>
<p>Reprising the <a href="http://clearclimatecode.org/gistemp-urban-adjustment/">Urban Adjustment post</a>:</p>
<p><img src="http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&#038;chtt=Global+Land+Index&#038;chdlp=t&#038;chdl=old+adjustment|new+adjustment&#038;chds=-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100&#038;chd=t:-999%7C-9,-13,2,-4,-40,-21,-25,-44,-23,8,-20,-50,-35,-36,-28,-29,-23,-12,-15,-21,-3,-1,-26,-34,-39,-23,-13,-39,-29,-30,-19,-24,-32,-27,-1,6,-20,-46,-33,-8,-17,-3,-9,-15,-11,-15,5,-5,-1,-22,-3,3,4,-11,2,-8,2,12,15,-2,14,12,11,6,11,-1,1,12,-3,-9,-17,-2,3,11,-9,-8,-18,8,9,5,-1,10,5,3,-25,-15,-8,-2,-9,1,4,-10,-5,18,-6,-2,-21,16,7,14,28,40,9,34,15,12,19,35,42,28,49,44,14,18,31,44,36,39,70,44,39,55,67,65,59,76,63,71,53,70,-999%7C-999%7C-24,-19,-14,-19,-45,-32,-42,-54,-23,-4,-40,-47,-38,-41,-29,-20,-10,-3,-21,-13,2,2,-17,-26,-37,-17,-7,-36,-22,-25,-17,-20,-22,-19,2,4,-20,-39,-32,-7,-13,-6,-14,-17,-12,-13,6,-6,-1,-21,-3,3,1,-12,5,-9,0,11,15,-1,14,11,10,4,9,-1,0,12,-3,-9,-17,-2,4,12,-8,-7,-17,8,10,5,-1,9,5,3,-25,-15,-7,-1,-9,0,5,-10,-6,19,-7,-2,-23,15,6,13,27,39,7,33,13,12,18,34,41,27,47,42,13,17,30,44,36,38,69,43,40,56,67,65,59,77,65,73,55,71,-999%7C-100,100%7C-35,41%7C54,98%7C17,68%7C-100,100%7C-37,42%7C54,98%7C15,69&#038;chxt=x,y,r&#038;chxl=0:%7C1880%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1890%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1900%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1910%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1920%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1930%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1940%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1950%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1960%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1970%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1980%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1990%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2000%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2010%7C1:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C%7C2:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C&#038;chco=ff0000,0000ff,ff0000,ff0000,0000ff,0000ff&#038;chls=1%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1&#038;chm=%40tTrend+%28°C%2FCentury%29+and+R²%2C000000%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.20%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.59+%280.65%29+%2F+30-year%3A+1.74+%280.62%29%2Cff0000%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.15%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.60+%280.67%29+%2F+30-year%3A+1.85+%280.64%29%2C0000ff%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.10%2C12&#038;chs=440x330" /></p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;ve done a combined land and ocean chart comparing hemispheres for the blog before, but here it is now:</p>
<p><img src="http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&#038;chtt=Land+Ocean+Index&#038;chdlp=t&#038;chdl=NH|SH&#038;chds=-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100&#038;chd=t:-999%7C-31,-23,-29,-33,-42,-38,-35,-39,-27,-16,-40,-24,-36,-38,-34,-28,-19,-14,-23,-11,-5,-9,-28,-28,-34,-22,-14,-43,-31,-33,-31,-29,-40,-33,-14,-6,-31,-47,-35,-25,-15,-7,-23,-17,-11,-8,8,-6,0,-23,6,10,3,-19,4,-4,2,19,24,13,11,14,12,18,29,9,6,12,7,3,-13,7,10,27,1,-4,-22,6,17,12,10,7,14,15,-20,-14,-1,4,-4,0,-3,-16,-20,8,-21,-8,-25,8,-4,4,10,33,1,20,-1,-5,9,21,31,22,48,37,7,15,33,53,25,49,70,47,48,59,66,68,63,82,74,77,59,64,-999%7C-999%7C-26,-18,-23,-21,-21,-26,-22,-32,-26,-18,-38,-31,-27,-27,-32,-23,-10,-8,-27,-19,-9,-19,-20,-33,-35,-26,-24,-35,-34,-36,-35,-38,-23,-26,-15,-13,-29,-30,-31,-15,-23,-22,-28,-27,-32,-25,-12,-23,-24,-28,-22,-15,-19,-18,-17,-20,-11,-5,-3,-9,-2,6,-6,1,10,4,-15,-12,-15,-17,-17,-14,-4,-5,-20,-15,-12,9,0,-1,-11,8,-7,1,-21,-8,-6,-5,-5,15,9,-5,20,20,5,-2,-7,17,6,13,25,19,8,31,18,15,15,31,31,16,26,32,18,12,13,21,33,29,43,17,17,36,45,40,33,42,34,36,28,49,-999%7C-100,100%7C-40,42%7C54,98%7C3,76%7C-100,100%7C-38,29%7C54,98%7C16,38&#038;chxt=x,y,r&#038;chxl=0:%7C1880%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1890%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1900%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1910%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1920%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1930%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1940%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1950%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1960%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1970%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1980%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1990%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2000%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2010%7C1:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C%7C2:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C&#038;chco=00ff00,0000ff,00ff00,00ff00,0000ff,0000ff&#038;chls=1%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1&#038;chm=%40tTrend+%28°C%2FCentury%29+and+R²%2C000000%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.20%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.63+%280.65%29+%2F+30-year%3A+2.50+%280.73%29%2C00ff00%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.15%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.51+%280.77%29+%2F+30-year%3A+0.75+%280.37%29%2C0000ff%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.10%2C12&#038;chs=440x330" /></p>
<p>Nick Barnes added the calculation of R<sup>2</sup> whilst I was writing this post, causing me to redraw all the charts.</p>
<p>Nick has also been exploiting <a href="http://code.google.com/p/ccc-gistemp/downloads/list">ccc-gistemp</a>&#8217;s new <a href="http://code.google.com/p/ccc-gistemp/source/browse/trunk/code/parameters.py">parameters.py</a> module, and did a run with the somewhat experimental 250km smoothing rather than the traditional 1200km smoothing.  The parameter is named <tt>gridding_radius</tt> and it affects gridding in Step 3; setting it to 250km essentially reduces each station&#8217;s influence to very roughly the size of the cell used in gridding.</p>
<p>The effect on the trends is most visible in the Northern Hemisphere:</p>
<p><img src="http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&#038;chtt=Land+Ocean+Index:+Northern+Hemisphere&#038;chdlp=t&#038;chdl=1200km+(standard)|250km&#038;chds=-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100,-100,100&#038;chd=t:-999%7C-31,-23,-29,-33,-42,-38,-35,-39,-27,-16,-40,-24,-36,-38,-34,-28,-19,-14,-23,-11,-5,-9,-28,-28,-34,-22,-14,-43,-31,-33,-31,-29,-40,-33,-14,-6,-31,-47,-35,-25,-15,-7,-23,-17,-11,-8,8,-6,0,-23,6,10,3,-19,4,-4,2,19,24,13,11,14,12,18,29,9,6,12,7,3,-13,7,10,27,1,-4,-22,6,17,12,10,7,14,15,-20,-14,-1,4,-4,0,-3,-16,-20,8,-21,-8,-25,8,-4,4,10,33,1,20,-1,-5,9,21,31,22,48,37,7,15,33,53,25,49,70,47,48,59,66,68,63,82,74,77,59,64,-999%7C-999%7C-18,-18,-18,-25,-23,-24,-20,-22,-20,-8,-28,-14,-31,-34,-27,-24,-11,-11,-16,-10,-3,-9,-24,-26,-32,-21,-12,-39,-32,-32,-27,-30,-37,-31,-15,-5,-28,-42,-29,-26,-15,-7,-23,-19,-19,-8,4,-8,-7,-23,4,5,0,-20,2,-5,2,13,19,10,4,10,7,16,28,9,4,3,8,4,-13,8,8,24,-2,-4,-23,7,17,11,8,9,14,16,-18,-14,1,5,-3,-2,-3,-16,-19,8,-21,-7,-26,8,-3,6,10,30,4,22,-3,-9,9,20,29,25,47,34,10,13,31,45,20,46,62,42,42,53,57,61,60,68,61,65,50,54,-999%7C-100,100%7C-40,42%7C54,98%7C3,76%7C-100,100%7C-33,36%7C54,98%7C5,65&#038;chxt=x,y,r&#038;chxl=0:%7C1880%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1890%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1900%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1910%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1920%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1930%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1940%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1950%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1960%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1970%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1980%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1990%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2000%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2010%7C1:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C%7C2:%7C%7C-0.5%7C+0.0%7C+0.5%7C&#038;chco=000000,00ff00,000000,000000,00ff00,00ff00&#038;chls=1%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1%7C1,8,2%7C1&#038;chm=%40tTrend+%28°C%2FCentury%29+and+R²%2C000000%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.20%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.63+%280.65%29+%2F+30-year%3A+2.50+%280.73%29%2C000000%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.15%2C12%7C%40tfull%3A+0.53+%280.61%29+%2F+30-year%3A+2.08+%280.69%29%2C00ff00%2C0%2C0.40%3A0.10%2C12&#038;chs=440x330" /></p>
<p>Trends are just one minor example of the way in which the ccc-gistemp code can be continuously improved.  We don&#8217;t just draw trends for one graph, we improve the code so that <em>all</em> graphs can have trends.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>17</slash:comments>
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