Comments on: Trendy! http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/ Sat, 04 Sep 2010 02:39:50 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Ibrahim http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2266 Ibrahim Fri, 14 May 2010 18:04:14 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2266 "We are not in the business of drawing trend lines wherever anyone pleases." I just wanted to show you how tricky it is drawing "trendlines". That was all. Thank you. Best regards. “We are not in the business of drawing trend lines wherever anyone pleases.”

I just wanted to show you how tricky it is drawing “trendlines”.

That was all. Thank you.

Best regards.

]]> By: drj http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2262 drj Thu, 13 May 2010 08:46:58 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2262 It is a little more tricky to "pretend we have no more data after 1980" (data for later years can effect the anomaly for earlier years, although i fully expect the effect to be negligible in this case), but we can compute trends for the pre- and post- cutoff series from 1880 to 1980. The trends are 0.15 °C and 0.51 °C per century, with the post-cutoff having the smaller value. So perhaps one could argue that those stations that continue to report are those which have a lower trend from 1880 to 1980. We are not in the business of drawing trend lines wherever anyone pleases. The data are there (in the URL!) for people to draw their own trend lines (or people can generate the data themselves using our code). The trend line feature was added on a whim and currently has a bug (when drawing only one series); much more discussion of where to draw trend lines will probably result in me removing the code for simplicity's sake. It is a little more tricky to “pretend we have no more data after 1980″ (data for later years can effect the anomaly for earlier years, although i fully expect the effect to be negligible in this case), but we can compute trends for the pre- and post- cutoff series from 1880 to 1980. The trends are 0.15 °C and 0.51 °C per century, with the post-cutoff having the smaller value.

So perhaps one could argue that those stations that continue to report are those which have a lower trend from 1880 to 1980.

We are not in the business of drawing trend lines wherever anyone pleases. The data are there (in the URL!) for people to draw their own trend lines (or people can generate the data themselves using our code).

The trend line feature was added on a whim and currently has a bug (when drawing only one series); much more discussion of where to draw trend lines will probably result in me removing the code for simplicity’s sake.

]]> By: Ibrahim http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2261 Ibrahim Wed, 12 May 2010 22:30:37 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2261 If you draw the "trend" between 1880 and 1980 (pretending you have no data after that) for the global land index post cut off you will see no warming during that period. Best regards. If you draw the “trend” between 1880 and 1980 (pretending you have no data after that) for the global land index post cut off you will see no warming during that period.

Best regards.

]]> By: Nick.Barnes http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2251 Nick.Barnes Sun, 09 May 2010 11:16:17 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2251 @Ibrahim: What are you waiting for? Are you expecting one of us to do something? It's hard to tell from your comments. If you want someone to do something, I suggest that you write, clearly and in detail: who it is you want to do it; what it is you want them to do; and why you think they should do it. That way, they might either do it, or reply to say why they won't. All of your contributions to this thread so far have been extremely brief and ambiguous, and have had a snippy tone. This isn't that sort of blog. Please be more clear, and more clearly polite, in future. @Ibrahim: What are you waiting for? Are you expecting one of us to do something? It’s hard to tell from your comments.

If you want someone to do something, I suggest that you write, clearly and in detail: who it is you want to do it; what it is you want them to do; and why you think they should do it. That way, they might either do it, or reply to say why they won’t.

All of your contributions to this thread so far have been extremely brief and ambiguous, and have had a snippy tone. This isn’t that sort of blog. Please be more clear, and more clearly polite, in future.

]]> By: Ibrahim http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2245 Ibrahim Sat, 08 May 2010 09:23:24 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2245 I'm still waiting. I’m still waiting.

]]> By: Ibrahim http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2231 Ibrahim Thu, 29 Apr 2010 20:19:56 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2231 Well, you use them for the long "trends". Draw the "trends" between 1880 and 1980. Well, you use them for the long “trends”.
Draw the “trends” between 1880 and 1980.

]]> By: drj http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2230 drj Thu, 29 Apr 2010 19:59:20 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2230 @Ibrahim: Which bit do you take objection to? Clearly you can draw trends on the graph between 1880 to 1920, but are they meaningful? You'd have to consult errors bars. Which we don't draw on our graphs (yet?). It's well known that surface temperature reconstructions have far fewer stations for the the early 20th century and 19th century and this makes the errors in the estimate larger. So it would be unwise to blithely draw trends for those periods. @Ibrahim: Which bit do you take objection to? Clearly you can draw trends on the graph between 1880 to 1920, but are they meaningful? You’d have to consult errors bars. Which we don’t draw on our graphs (yet?).

It’s well known that surface temperature reconstructions have far fewer stations for the the early 20th century and 19th century and this makes the errors in the estimate larger. So it would be unwise to blithely draw trends for those periods.

]]> By: Ibrahim http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2229 Ibrahim Thu, 29 Apr 2010 15:11:48 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2229 LDSLAS I don't think drj knows what drj just said :-) LDSLAS

I don’t think drj knows what drj just said :-)

]]> By: drj http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2228 drj Thu, 29 Apr 2010 10:04:32 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2228 LDLAS: What "first forty years" are you talking about? The first forty years on the graph, 1880 to 1920? If it is that period that you're talking about, I doubt that there's enough data to draw meaningful trends. If it's something else, please expand. LDLAS: What “first forty years” are you talking about? The first forty years on the graph, 1880 to 1920? If it is that period that you’re talking about, I doubt that there’s enough data to draw meaningful trends. If it’s something else, please expand.

]]> By: LDLAS http://clearclimatecode.org/trendy/comment-page-1/#comment-2226 LDLAS Wed, 28 Apr 2010 11:33:42 +0000 http://clearclimatecode.org/?p=237#comment-2226 The “before 1992 / after 1992 stations” from “The 1990s station dropout does not have a warming effect” what about the first fourty years? The “before 1992 / after 1992 stations” from “The 1990s station dropout does not have a warming effect”

what about the first fourty years?

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